Bài giảng Chính sách ổn định

1kinh t
v mô b
n th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài gi
ng ca Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch và sa theo bài gi
ng ca Ron Cronovich)m ac ro © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved CHNG 14 Chính sách n nh CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 1 Mc tiêu c a ch ng
      !"#$!"% & ! '()* +,-!$./% CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 2 Câu hi 1:   !"#$!"%   !"# !" CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 3 T c  tng GDP thc c a M, 1960:1-2001:4 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 % CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 4 Nhng lp lun ng h chính sách ch ng
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HFIJJKL  ;M NO-3)4 P?BQ RJ!$ 36 6 CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 5 S thay i c a tht nghip trong các cuc suy thoái 2,115/19547/1953 1,673/19917/1990 4,0811/19827/1981 1,687/19801/1980 3,583/197511/1973 2,0111/197012/1969 1,212/19614/1960 2,274/19588/1957 gia tng s ng i tht nghi p (tri u)áynh 2CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 6 Nhng lp lun phn  i chính sách ch ng  8"S3TDUDS!J
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v mô ^9!"Q!"SW 9!$?BD(#! ' I9  ! D(# _ 01 `R364D(#LabcO 1dR)D!" Q3 6 _:FI36Z:F 01:FI4+:FQQ: R! ' Q '4P! 'eDE!P D(#(?B #6"Q  R CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 9 Ch s LEI và GDP thc t
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* cD*Cfa*D b: cDO g: hdR) LC*:3ijc NkNO -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 an nu al pe rc en ta ge ch an ge Leading Economic Indicators Real GDP CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 10 Ch s LEI và GDP thc t
, 1970s source of LEI data: The Conference Board -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 an nu al pe rc en ta ge ch an ge Leading Economic Indicators Real GDP CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 11 Ch s LEI và GDP thc t
, 1980s source of LEI data: The Conference Board -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 a n n u al pe rc e n ta ge ch a n ge Leading Economic Indicators Real GDP 3CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 12 Ch s LEI và GDP thc t
, 1990s source of LEI data: The Conference Board -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 a n n u al pe rc e n ta ge ch a n ge Leading Economic Indicators Real GDP CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 13 Sai l
m d báo cuc suy thoái nm 1982 Year Unemployment rate (percent) 1986 Actual 1983:4 1983:2 1982:4 1982:2 1981:4 1981:2 198519841983198219811980 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 14 D báo kinh t
v mô ^?)+BQ!"SW 9!$?BD(#! 'I 936  01D* Q-[D( # 7:,K: 82:"/D9:"R 36?B!R !" 0  D  Q-[D( #  , K   " D9  " 8 6 B!  !" CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 15 Phê phán c a Lucas
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n có trng tài… \)I9$eK!23F!  !?q2r _ ^(R)-34C!$! '  RW _ -344:n3! 6 63F! 'e DE 4CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 18 Câu hi 2: ! ' ()*+ ,./% ! ' ( )   ,  CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 19 Các quy tc và s tu ý: nhng khái nim c bn
   
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3B1y^ po: DEy^ p(6 CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 29 Quy tc Taylor !4 ~D%% = − =   *%% %%  pi − ×3y^ p~hh & & & ~y^ p*D :*: pi= − −&€hmL &O hmLsy^ pO% 6CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 30 Quy tc Taylor
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m phát trung bình Ch s c lp ca NHT 7CHAPTER 14 Stabilization Policy slide 36 Tóm tt ch ng  01 7 " !"[
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